Model applications by EG – Environmental Geography

CLUMondo / DynaCLUE model applications applied by the Environmental Geography department to study the impacts of land system change.

Arranged by publication date

2021

Banerjee, O., Cicowiez, M., Macedo, M., Malek, Ž., Verburg, P., Goodwin, S., Vargas, R., Rattis, L., Brando, P.M., Coe, M.T. and Neill, C., 2021. An Amazon tipping point: The economic and environmental fallout (No. IDB-WP-01259). IDB Working Paper Series. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003385

Banerjee, O., Cicowiez, M., Vargas, R., Molina-Pérez, E. and Malek, Ž., 2021. Decarbonization of Costa Rica’s Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses Sectors: An Application of the IEEM ESM Approach (No. 11075). IDB Working Paper Series. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003078

Banerjee, O., Cicowiez, M., Malek, Ž., Verburg, P.H., Vargas, R. and Goodwin, S., 2020. The Value of Biodiversity in Economic Decision Making: Applying the IEEM+ ESM Approach to Conservation Strategies in Colombia (Vol. 1193). IDB Working Paper Series. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0002945

Malek, Ž. and Verburg, P.H., 2021. Representing responses to climate change in spatial land system models. Land Degradation & Development, 32(17), pp.4954-4973. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.4083

Schulze, K. Malek, Ž., Verburg, P.H., 2021. How will land degradation neutrality change future land system patterns? A scenario simulation study. Environmental Science & Policy 124, 254-266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2021.06.024

Tierolf, L., De Moel, H., and van Vliet, J., 2021. Modelling urban development and its exposure to river flood riks in southeast Asia. Computers, Environment and Urban systems 87: 101620: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2021.101620

Wang, Y. van Vliet. J., Debonne, N., Pu, L., Verburg, P., 2021. Settlement changes after peak population: Land system projections for China until 2050. Landscape and Urban Planning 209, 104045. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2021.104045

Verburg, P.H., Malek, Z., Goodwin, S. and Zagaria, C., 2021. The Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform: IEEM Platform Technical Guides: User Guide for the IEEM-enhanced Land Use Land Cover Change Model Dyna-CLUE. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003625

2020

Goncalves-Souza, D., Verburg, P.H., Dobrovolski, R., 2020. Habitat loss, extinction predictability and conservation efforts in the terrestrial ecoregions. BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION 246. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2020.108579

Schulze, K., Malek, Ž., Verburg, P.H., 2020. The Impact of Accounting for Future Wood Production in Global Vertebrate Biodiversity Assessments. Environmental Management 66, 460–475. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-020-01322-4

Wolff, S., Meijer, J., Schulp, C.J.E., Verburg, P.H., 2020. Contextualizing local landscape initiatives in global change: a scenario study for the high forest zone, Ghana. Reg Environ Change 20, 115. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01701-x

Shirmohammadi, B., Malekian, A., Salajegheh, A., Taheri, B., Azarnivand, H., Malek, Z., Verburg, P.H., 2020. Impacts of future climate and land use change on water yield in a semiarid basin in Iran. Land Degradation & Development 31, 1252–1264. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.3554

Shirmohammadi, B., Malekian, A., Salajegheh, A., Taheri, B., Azarnivand, H., Malek, Z., Verburg, P.H., 2020. Scenario analysis for integrated water resources management under future land use change in the Urmia Lake region, Iran. Land Use Policy 90, 104299. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104299

2019

Debonne, N., van Vliet, J., Verburg, P., 2019. Future governance options for large-scale land acquisition in Cambodia: Impacts on tree cover and tiger landscapes. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY 94, 9–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2018.12.031

Ornetsmuller, C., Castella, J.-C., Thanichanon, P., Lestrelin, G., Verburg, P.H., 2019. Modelling the location and spatial pattern of a crop boom. A case study from Laos. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY 99, 58–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2019.04.001

Wang, Y., van Vliet, J., Pu, L., Verburg, P.H., 2019. Modeling different urban change trajectories and their trade-offs with food production in Jiangsu Province, China. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 77, 101355. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2019.101355

Wilson, S., Schuster, R., Rodewald, A.D., Bennett, J.R., Smith, A.C., La Sorte, F.A., Verburg, P.H., Arcese, P., 2019. Prioritize diversity or declining species? Trade-offs and synergies in spatial planning for the conservation of migratory birds in the face of land cover change. BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION 239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.108285

Schulze, K., Malek, Ž., Verburg, P.H. 2019. Towards better mapping of forest management patterns: A global allocation approach. Forest Ecology & Management 432, 776-785. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2018.10.001

2018

Debonne, N., van Vliet, J., Heinimann, A., Verburg, P., 2018 Representing large-scale land acquisitions in land use change scenarios for the Lao PDR. Regional Environmental Change 18, 1857-1869. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1316-8

Fuchs, R., Prestele, R., Verburg, P.H., 2018. A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios. EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS 9, 441–458. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-441-2018

Malek, Z., Verburg, P.H., 2018. Adaptation of land management in the Mediterranean under scenarios of irrigation water use and availability. MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR GLOBAL CHANGE 23, 821–837. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-017-9761-0

Malek, Z., Verburg, P.H., Geijzendorffer, I.R., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W., 2018. Global change effects on land management in the Mediterranean region. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 50, 238–254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.04.007

Wolff, S., Schrammeijer, E.A., Schulp, C.J.E., Verburg, P.H., 2018. Meeting global land restoration and protection targets: What would the world look like in 2050? GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 52, 259–272. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.08.002

Lotze-Campen, H., Verburg, P.H., Popp, A., Lindner, M., Verkerk, P.J., Moiseyev, A., Schrammeijer, E., Helming, J., Tabeau, A., Schulp, C.J.E., van der Zanden, E.H., Lavalle, C., e Silva, F.B., Walz, A., Bodirsky, B., 2018. A cross-scale impact assessment of European nature protection policies under contrasting future socio-economic pathways. Reg Environ Change 18, 751–762. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1167-8

Stürck, J., Levers, C., van der Zanden, E.H., Schulp, C.J.E., Verkerk, P.J., Kuemmerle, T., Helming, J., Lotze-Campen, H., Tabeau, A., Popp, A., Schrammeijer, E., Verburg, P., 2018. Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe. Reg Environ Change 18, 733–749. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0876-0

Verhagen, W., van Teeffelen, A.J.A., Verburg, P.H., 2018. Shifting spatial priorities for ecosystem services in Europe following land use change. Ecological Indicators 89, 397–410. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.01.019

Verkerk, P.J., Lindner, M., Pérez-Soba, M., Paterson, J.S., Helming, J., Verburg, P.H., Kuemmerle, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Moiseyev, A., Müller, D., Popp, A., Schulp, C.J.E., Stürck, J., Tabeau, A., Wolfslehner, B., van der Zanden, E.H., 2018. Identifying pathways to visions of future land use in Europe. Reg Environ Change 18, 817–830. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-1055-7

2017

Alexander, P., Prestele, R., Verburg, P.H., Arneth, A., Baranzelli, C., Batista e Silva, F., Brown, C., Butler, A., Calvin, K., Dendoncker, N., Doelman, J.C., Dunford, R., Engstrom, K., Eitelberg, D., Fujimori, S., Harrison, P.A., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Holzhauer, S., Humpenoeder, F., Jacobs-Crisioni, C., Jain, A.K., Krisztin, T., Kyle, P., Lavalle, C., Lenton, T., Liu, J., Meiyappan, P., Popp, A., Powell, T., Sands, R.D., Schaldach, R., Stehfest, E., Steinbuks, J., Tabeau, A., van Meijl, H., Wise, M.A., Rounsevell, M.D.A., 2017. Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23, 767–781. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13447

Eitelberg, D.A., Van Vliet, J., Verburg, P.H., 2017. Accounting for monogastric livestock as a driver in global land use and cover change assessments. JOURNAL OF LAND USE SCIENCE 12, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1080/1747423X.2016.1270361

van Vliet, J., Eitelberg, D.A., Verburg, P.H., 2017. A global analysis of land take in cropland areas and production displacement from urbanization. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 43, 107–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.02.001

La Sorte, F.A., Fink, D., Blancher, P.J., Rodewald, A.D., Ruiz-Gutierrez, V., Rosenberg, K.V., Hochachka, W.M., Verburg, P.H., Kelling, S., 2017. Global change and the distributional dynamics of migratory bird populations wintering in Central America. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23, 5284–5296. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13794

Prestele, R., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., de Noblet-Ducoudre, N., Pugh, T.A.M., Sitch, S., Stehfest, E., Verburg, P.H., 2017. Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments. EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS 8, 369–386. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-369-2017

Sorte, F.A.L., Fink, D., Blancher, P.J., Rodewald, A.D., Ruiz‐Gutierrez, V., Rosenberg, K.V., Hochachka, W.M., Verburg, P.H., Kelling, S., 2017. Global change and the distributional dynamics of migratory bird populations wintering in Central America. Global Change Biology 23, 5284–5296. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13794

Mouchet, M. A., Paracchini, M.L., Schulp, C.J.E., Stürck, J., Verkerk, P.J., Verburg, P.H., Lavorel, S., 2017. Bundles of ecosystem (dis)services and multifunctionality across European landscapes. Ecological Indicators 73, 23–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.09.026

Mouchet, Maud A., Rega, C., Lasseur, R., Georges, D., Paracchini, M.-L., Renaud, J., Stürck, J., Schulp, C.J.E., Verburg, P.H., Verkerk, P.J., Lavorel, S., 2017. Ecosystem service supply by European landscapes under alternative land-use and environmental policies. International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Services & Management 13, 342–354. https://doi.org/10.1080/21513732.2017.1381167

van der Zanden, E.H., Verburg, P.H., Schulp, C.J.E., Verkerk, P.J., 2017. Trade-offs of European agricultural abandonment. Land Use Policy 62, 290–301. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.01.003

2016

Di Minin, E., Slotow, R., Hunter, L.T.B., Pouzols, F.M., Toivonen, T., Verburg, P.H., Leader-Williams, N., Petracca, L., Moilanen, A., 2016. Global priorities for national carnivore conservation under land use change. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 6. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep23814

Eitelberg, D.A., van Vliet, J., Doelman, J.C., Stehfest, E., Verburg, P.H., 2016. Demand for biodiversity protection and carbon storage as drivers of global land change scenarios. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 40, 101–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.014

Ornetsmüller, C., Verburg, P.H., Heinimann, A., 2016. Scenarios of land system change in the Lao PDR: Transitions in response to alternative demands on goods and services provided by the land. Applied Geography 75, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.07.010

Prestele, R., Alexander, P., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Arneth, A., Calvin, K., Doelman, J., Eitelberg, D.A., Engstrom, K., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenoeder, F., Jain, A.K., Krisztin, T., Kyle, P., Meiyappan, P., Popp, A., Sands, R.D., Schaldach, R., Schuengel, J., Stehfest, E., Tabeau, A., Van Meijl, H., Van Vliet, J., Verburg, P.H., 2016. Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 22, 3967–3983. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13337

Tian, X., Wenbin, W., Qingbo, Z., Verburg, P.H., Qiangyi, Y., Peng, Y., Liming, Y., 2016. Model-based analysis of spatio-temporal changes in land use in Northeast China. JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES 26, 171–187. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-016-1261-8

Schulp, C.J.E., Van Teeffelen, A.J.A., Tucker, G., Verburg, P.H., 2016. A quantitative assessment of policy options for no net loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services in the European Union. Land Use Policy 57, 151–163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.05.018

2015

Eitelberg, D.A., van Vliet, J., and Verburg, P.H., 2015. A review of potentially available cropland estimates and their consequences for model-based assessments. Global Change Biology 21(3): 1236-1248. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12733

Ceaușu, S., Hofmann, M., Navarro, L.M., Carver, S., Verburg, P.H., Pereira, H.M., 2015. Mapping opportunities and challenges for rewilding in Europe. Conservation Biology 29, 1017–1027. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12533

Lehsten, V., Sykes, M.T., Scott, A.V., Tzanopoulos, J., Kallimanis, A., Mazaris, A., Verburg, P.H., Schulp, C.J.E., Potts, S.G., Vogiatzakis, I., 2015. Disentangling the effects of land-use change, climate and CO2 on projected future European habitat types. Global Ecology and Biogeography 24, 653–663. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12291

Stürck, J., Schulp, C.J.E., Verburg, P.H., 2015. Spatio-temporal dynamics of regulating ecosystem services in Europe – The role of past and future land use change. Applied Geography 63, 121–135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.06.009

2014

Montesino Pouzols, F., Toivonen, T., Di Minin, E., Kukkala, A.S., Kullberg, P., Kuusterä, J., Lehtomäki, J., Tenkanen, H., Verburg, P.H., Moilanen, A., 2014. Global protected area expansion is compromised by projected land-use and parochialism. Nature 516, 383–386. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14032

2013

van Asselen, S., Verburg, P.H., 2013. Land cover change or land-use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model. Glob Change Biol 19, 3648–3667. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12331

Cammerer, H., Thieken, A.H., Verburg, P.H., 2013. Spatio-temporal dynamics in the flood exposure due to land use changes in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria). Nat Hazards 68, 1243–1270. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0280-8

Renwick, A., Jansson, T., Verburg, P.H., Revoredo-Giha, C., Britz, W., Gocht, A., McCracken, D., 2013. Policy reform and agricultural land abandonment in the EU. Land Use Policy 30, 446–457. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.04.005

Verburg, P.H., Tabeau, A., Hatna, E., 2013. Assessing spatial uncertainties of land allocation using a scenario approach and sensitivity analysis: A study for land use in Europe. Journal of Environmental Management, Integrated land-use and regional resource management – A cross-disciplinary dialogue on future perspectives for a sustainable development of regional resources 127, S132–S144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.08.038

2012

Verburg, P.H., Koomen, E., Hilferink, M., Pérez-Soba, M., Lesschen, J.P., 2012. An assessment of the impact of climate adaptation measures to reduce flood risk on ecosystem services. Landscape Ecol 27, 473–486. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-012-9715-6

2011

Britz, W., Verburg, P.H., Leip, A., 2011. Modelling of land cover and agricultural change in Europe: Combining the CLUE and CAPRI-Spat approaches. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, Scaling methods in integrated assessment of agricultural systems 142, 40–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2010.03.008

Hellmann, F., Verburg, P.H., 2011. Spatially explicit modelling of biofuel crops in Europe. Biomass and Bioenergy, Modelling environmental, economic and social aspects in the Assessment of Biofuels 35, 2411–2424. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2008.09.003

Neumann, K., Verburg, P.H., Elbersen, B., Stehfest, E., Woltjer, G.B., 2011. Multi-scale scenarios of spatial-temporal dynamics in the European livestock sector. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 140, 88–101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2010.11.015

Temme, A.J.A.M., Verburg, P.H., 2011. Mapping and modelling of changes in agricultural intensity in Europe. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 140, 46–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2010.11.010

2010

Hellmann, F., Verburg, P.H., 2010. Impact assessment of the European biofuel directive on land use and biodiversity. Journal of Environmental Management 91, 1389–1396. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.02.022

Verburg, P.H., van Berkel, D.B., van Doorn, A.M., van Eupen, M., van den Heiligenberg, H.A.R.M., 2010. Trajectories of land use change in Europe: a model-based exploration of rural futures. Landscape Ecol 25, 217–232. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-009-9347-7

2009

Claessens, L., Schoorl, J.M., Verburg, P.H., Geraedts, L., Veldkamp, A., 2009. Modelling interactions and feedback mechanisms between land use change and landscape processes. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 129, 157–170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2008.08.008

Hurkmans, R.T.W.L., Terink, W., Uijlenhoet, R., Moors, E.J., Troch, P.A., Verburg, P.H., 2009. Effects of land use changes on streamflow generation in the Rhine basin. Water Resources Research 45. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007574

Verburg, P.H., Overmars, K.P., 2009. Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling: exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model. Landscape Ecol 24, 1167. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-009-9355-7

2008 and earlier

Schulp, C.J.E., Nabuurs, G.-J., Verburg, P.H., 2008. Future carbon sequestration in Europe—Effects of land use change. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 127, 251–264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2008.04.010

Verburg, P.H., Veldkamp, A., 2004. Projecting land use transitions at forest fringes in the Philippines at two spatial scales. Landscape Ecol 19, 77–98. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:LAND.0000018370.57457.58