Storylines for each of the SSP scenarios 1 – ‘Sustainability’, 2 – ‘Middle of the Road’ and 3 – ‘Regional Rivalry’ were implemented in CLUMondo in order to simulate land use change in each of these potential futures.
Using a previous model configuration, specific adjustments were made according to SSP narratives. The projected demand for crop production, bovines, goats and sheep and urban area were provided by IMAGE, as were the exogenous productivity increase factors due to technological change, per year.
For SSP1 demands were included for tons of crop production, head of bovines, goats and sheep (corrected to a ‘livestock unit’), builtup area and tons of carbon. The carbon demand was based on a no net loss situation where the total carbon content of all land systems was not allowed to fall below 2000 levels. For SSP2 and SSP3 demands were included for tons of crop production, head of bovines, goats and sheep (corrected to a ‘livestock unit’) and builtup area.
Climate change was taken into account by incorporating change in the precipitation and temperature drivers and in cropland suitability conversion restrictions. Climate-induced changes in crop productivity were added to the exogenous productivity increase factors obtained from IMAGE. Climate change in both SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 is projected to be about 6W/m2 by 2100. In 2050 this is equivalent to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 6 scenarios, or the SRES B1 scenario. Data used to determine the influence of climate change in CLUMondo was obtained from the Worldclim database and the FAO’s database on Global Agro-ecological zones.